1. Is this a must-win fight for Thiago Alves?

Two summers ago, the powerful Brazilian striker brought a seven-fight winning streak into UFC 100 where he challenged Georges St-Pierre for the welterweight title.

Alves was dominated that night, and missed weight while losing to Jon Fitch 13 months later. He rebounded with a decision win over John Howard, but then stumbled in an upset loss to Rick Story last May at UFC 130. After once again getting back into the win column against an opponent well outside of the upper echelon (Papy Abedi) in November, Alves is set to headline Friday’s card opposite Martin Kampmann.

A loss would move him to 2-4 over his last six fights, with victories over a since-released Howard, and Abedi, who will resurface in a preliminary card pairing with James Head when the UFC arrives in Stockholm in April. That’s the kind of run that keeps you out of contention, isn’t it?

If you look beyond just the names he’s beaten, you see that Alves hasn’t really been all that successful against quality competition over his career, which makes this fight with Kampmann even more important. His last “good win” came three-and-a-half years ago when Josh Koscheck stepped in on short notice to replace Diego Sanchez.

While I don’t think Alves is jeopardy of getting released if he loses, he will drop down a tier in the welterweight ranks, and put him in a win-or-else position next time out.

2. Can Martin Kampmann avoid the dumb mistakes?

That’s not me being a douchey journalist questioning a fighter’s abilities from behind a keyboard — I talked to Kampmann prior to this fight for a UFC.com feature, and he talked about the stupid mistakes he’s made in the past, and how much he needs to correct them.

He feels like he gave away his fight with Jake Shields by trying too hard to get a submission in the third, and knows he made a tactical error in trying to go punch-for-punch with Paul Daley the year before. While it’s great to address the need to fix things the week before you fight, it’s another thing entirely to put it into practice when you’re in the cage getting punched in the face by Thiago Alves.

Kampmann is one of the most underrated and technically gifted fighters in the welterweight division; his striking is so clean it’s crazy, and he has a much better ground game than people ever give him credit for. The mental side of things has been his downfall at times — and the crazy-ass judges who somehow awarded Diego Sanchez the win last March — and until he consistently shows that he can overcome those brain cramps and momentary lapses in good judgment, he’ll remain on the fringes of contention in the 170-pound ranks.

3. How good can Joseph Benavidez be at flyweight?

In my opinion, Benavidez has been the second-best bantamweight in the world for the last two-plus years; the only one better is Dominick Cruz.

The Team Alpha Male standout is the favorite to win the flyweight tournament; he’s so big of a favorite over Yasuhiro Urushitani that saying he’s a “massive” favorite doesn’t even cover it. Benavidez is a tremendous talent, and I think now that he’s fighting at 125-pounds, he’ll start getting the attention and accolades he deserves.

Here’s the thing: he’s lost twice in his career, both times to Dominick Cruz, and he’s just now starting to fight in his natural weight class. This is the guy who gave Miguel Torres the worst beating of his career — yes, it was worse than when Torres lost to Brian Bowles — and has dominated everyone else he’s faced while not being able to use his full arsenal of weapons because he’s been undersized.

He’ll be a top 10 pound-for-pound guy by the end of the year, and he’ll most likely be the first UFC flyweight champion too.

4. Will Ian McCall live up to his #1 ranking?

McCall has a huge opportunity and a difficult test in front of him on Friday.

The #1-ranked flyweight in the world after becoming the Tachi Palace Fights 125-pound champion in 2011, McCall squares off with former bantamweight title challenger Demetrious Johnson in the second semifinal pairing. LIke Benavidez, Johnson has enjoyed success at bantamweight despite being better suited for the flyweight division, which leaves McCall as a significant underdog heading into their encounter.

It’s not often that the #1-ranked fighter in a division is considered the underdog, and I think McCall likes it. In fact, I know he likes it; we talked about it prior to his leaving for Australia. He’s worked hard and overcome some serious obstacles to get to this point, and now he gets the chance to show everyone — fans, critics, the UFC — that even though there are some more well-known names entering the 125-pound ranks, he’s earned his place at the top, and he’s planning on staying there.

This is easily the fight I’m most looking forward to this week, as McCall has all the tools to hang with “Mighty Mouse,” not to mention the best mustache in all of MMA.

5. What’s Court McGee’s ceiling?

In sports, we use the word “ceiling” to describe the upper limits of an athlete’s abilities. Someone like Jon Jones has no ceiling — his potential is limitless — while a guy like Cheick Kongo’s ceiling rests just below the upper echelon in the heavyweight division.

Make sense? Good.

Friday is another chance to get a potential measurement on the ceiling of Court McGee, the winner of Season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter, who has earned a pair of hard-fought victories over lower-to-middle tier talent to date. In both outings, “The Crusher” has shown the kind of determination and heart that can’t be taught, and he’s continuing to improve his skill set each time out as well, which makes him an intriguing fighter to watch in the still somewhat shallow middleweight ranks.

Personally, I think he has top 10 potential based on his conditioning, heart, and solid all-around game. Whether or not he can get there remains to be seen, but Friday’s meeting with Costa Philippou is a great opportunity to see where he stands.

* * * * * * * *

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Come Saturday morning, we’ll know which two men will meet later this year in a fight to become the inaugural UFC flyweight champion.

Didn’t know there was a flyweight division?

Didn’t know the four-man, two-fight tournament kicks off Friday night as part of the live UFC on FX 2 telecast from the Allphones Arena in Sydney, Australia?

That doesn’t surprise me; not in the least.

Over the course of the four-hour broadcast of UFC 144 Saturday night, I can’t remember a single reference to the upcoming event, which is headlined by welterweights Martin Kampmann and Thiago Alves. While I recall a couple of plugs for the once hot, not only kind of lukewarm women’s bantamweight title fight between Miesha Tate and Ronda Rousey on Saturday, there was no mention of the fact that four of the elite 125-pound competitors on the planet will be stepping into the cage Saturday in Sydney (Friday night here with the time change) in a quest to eventually crown the first flyweight champion in UFC history.

It’s a damn shame too, because just like the rest of the lighter weight classes, the ’25s are going to be electric, and it starts with a pair of outstanding fights on Friday.

In one semi-final, former bantamweight title challenger Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson takes on the top-ranked flyweight in the world, Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall, the former Tachi Palace Fights 125-pound champion, who brings a four-fight winning streak and the best mustache in MMA into his UFC debut. The other semi-final pits Japanese veteran Yasuhiro Urushitani against Joseph Benavidez, the Team Alpha Male standout who was arguably the second-best bantamweight in the world until he decided to move down in an attempt to become UFC flyweight champion.

But as seems to happen all too frequently with the lighter weight fighters, the flyweights aren’t getting the attention they deserve.

Of the four men in the tournament, only Johnson has received any kind of exposure over the last year, courtesy of his October title fight with Dominick Cruz on Versus. Urushitani and McCall are making their organizational debuts, while Benavidez has been buried on Facebook for his two appearances in the Octagon to date, despite, as already mentioned, being one of the elite bantamweights in the sport. (Note: I’ll have an interview with Benavidez up here tomorrow for you to enjoy.)

In the next six months (if not sooner), one of these four men is going to become the eighth UFC champion in a fight that will likely serve as either the co-main or main event of a pay-per-view or television broadcast, and many fans will have no idea who they are. The only way you can combat that problem is by working overtime to get these athletes the exposure they deserve, but because of the UFC’s hectic schedule, this fight card — like most made-for-TV fight cards — has gotten the bare minimum from a marketing and promotions standpoint.

It seems like that happens all too often with the lighter weight fighters.

Last year, two Jose Aldo featherweight title defenses were relegated to co-main event status, while Dominick Cruz defended the bantamweight title as the headlining act on a Versus card that was buried between a pair of pay-per-view events with championship headliners. Before the advent of the FOX deal, there would be no chance of seeing any champion north of 155-pound defending their title on television, and it probably still won’t happen now that “Big FOX” is in the UFC business either.

But I bet we’ll see one of the four titles from the lighter weight classes up for grabs on television again this year, if not more than one.

The only way that’s kosher is if those fights take place on FOX. Relegating one of your eight champions to defending their title on FUEL or FX would be a slap in the face, and a sign that the UFC really doesn’t value the belt, the division, or the champion nearly as much as they do some of their more proven championship commodities.

Here’s the thing: would people tune in to FOX to see Joseph Benavidez battle Demetrious Johnson for the UFC flyweight title?

Chances are they wouldn’t, because a lot of fans aren’t really sure who Benavidez and Johnson are — and they damn sure don’t know who McCall and Urushitani are either — because the UFC has once again dropped the ball on the promotional front. I mean, the latter two are represented by dark silhouettes on the UFC homepage right now. Somebody couldn’t have found the time over the last three months to get a picture of either of them?

The funny thing — ironic funny, not ha-ha funny — is that this would have been a perfect time to put additional marketing and promotions muscle behind this tournament as Georges St-Pierre is out of commission for the next handful of months, Anderson Silva is still a few months away from returning, and one of the main “storylines” with the company in the last few months has been the emergence of new stars.

There’s none newer than the four men ushering the flyweight division into the UFC, yet instead of battling it out for 125-pound supremacy amidst a great deal of fanfare and attention, they’re slugging it out in Sydney, Australia, far removed from the spotlight, competing on FX.

* * * * * * * *

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The UFC is a business, and the goal of every business is to make money.

The UFC is also a sporting league, and the goal of sport is to win.

Following UFC 144 this past weekend in Japan, former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar suggested at the post-fight press conference that it would only be fair if he were awarded an immediate rematch against the man who had just beaten him, Benson Henderson.

Edgar has a good case. He had to give both BJ Penn and Gray Maynard rematches, and since his meeting with Henderson was close — both UFC President Dana White and UFC matchmaker Joe Silva scored the fight for “The Answer” — shouldn’t he get the same treatment both Penn and Maynard got over the last two years?

The immediate answer following the fight was, “probably not.”

Rather than have Edgar-Henderson 2, White outlined that he still hopes to see Edgar move down to featherweight to challenge Jose Aldo, and suggested that instead of a rematch with Edgar, Henderson would most likely square off with Anthony Pettis for a second time in the first defence of the his newly earned lightweight title.

Do both suggestions make sense? Absolutely, but I can’t shake the feeling that they both give off the wrong message.

I’ve already outlined why I think moving Edgar down to featherweight is a short-term fix to a long-term problem, so I won’t rehash it here. Instead, I want to focus on Pettis’ quick climb to title contention, and why the UFC needs to start establishing what earns you a title shot: the volume and quality of your wins or the how entertaining you are when you get your hand raised?

* * * * * * * *

In perfect world, we have numerous Jon Jones types who hit both categories simultaneously, winning in entertaining fashion against elite competition, and doing it each and every time he steps into the cage.

Unfortunately, those types are few and far between.

So when you can’t get both, which one wins out?

Pettis is an entertainment-based pick, no question.

He collected Knockout of the Night honours Saturday in Saitama, Japan for his shin-to-chin connection against Joe Lauzon at UFC 144, a kick that was eerily reminiscent of his WEC 47 finish of Danny Castillo. He’s a finisher, with 12 of his 15 wins coming inside the distance, and many in spectacular fashion. No one is going to argue that the 25-year-old Milwaukee native isn’t deserving of the moniker “Showtime.”

The signature moment of his career came against Henderson, when he ran up the cage and connected with “The Showtime Kick” to close out their lightweight title fight at WEC 53. The fact that they have history — and that that fight was a barnburner — aids in the decision to put together a bout between the two next, but there are legitimate grounds for objecting to Pettis being the first to challenge Henderson for the lightweight title.

Before I move forward, it must be said that Pettis’ spectacular finish on Saturday night came at the best time possible: most everyone else at the top of the lightweight division is either (1) occupied or (2) coming off a loss.

The knock on the selection of Pettis is that he’s getting a title shot with a two-fight winning streak, and the first of those two victories was an uninspiring split decision win over Jeremy Stephens.

As a result of the second Frankie Edgar-Gray Maynard fight of 2011 (the third of their trilogy) being backed up from May to October, Jim Miller’s seven-fight winning streak earned him a date with Henderson in August instead of a title shot. Henderson dominated the contest, moving Miller back in the rankings.

After controlling Pettis throughout their meeting at the Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale to push his winning streak to four, Clay Guida earned a title eliminator bout with Henderson in November. Three months after dashing Miller’s title hopes, Henderson did the same to Guida at the inaugural FOX event in Anaheim.

Miller has already gotten back into the win column, defeating Melvin Guillard last month on FX, but one fight is almost never enough to earn you a title shot. Instead, he’s booked to face Nathan Diaz in May in a fight that will likely determine who will be next to challenge for the lightweight title.

Because Henderson derailed two elite contenders on his way to last weekend’s title fight with Edgar, Pettis’ entertaining style and explosive victory on Saturday night trumps his lack of high-end victories to earn him a title shot.

* * * * * * * *

I’m all for making entertaining fights, and agree that if Edgar isn’t going to get a rematch, this is the only fight that makes sense at this point.

That being said, I believe the best long-term path to take when determining title contenders is by awarding the opportunities to the fighter who pile up the most quality wins, not the one who scores a couple of entertaining wins and might sell a few more pay-per-views.

A greater emphasis has to be place on the actual accomplishments of the athletes moving forward because there is no way to guarantee that a fight that looks entertaining on paper is going to play out that way inside the cage.

Everyone expected Pettis’ encounter with Jeremy Stephens at UFC 136 to be an electric affair, as Stephens is one of the most powerful strikers in the lightweight division, and, well, Pettis is Pettis. Instead of a collection of SportsCenter highlights, we got a bad wrestling match; 15 minutes of Pettis and Stephens trading takedowns and trying to grind out a win.

The more you move towards favouring the entertaining guy with a couple good wins over the guy with more quality wins but less panache, you move closer to putting fighters in a position where some of them have to decide if they’re willing to changing their approach in order to challenge for a championship.

No fighter should ever be put in that position.

Who you beat needs to mean more than how you beat them.

The tie can go to the guy with more flash, but if somebody has five solid decision wins, they should be earning a shot ahead of the guy with a couple highlight reel finishes.

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For everyone ready to argue the financial side of things — “entertaining fighters are better pay-per-view draws” — the truth is that there are only a few fighters in the UFC who are legitimate pay-per-view draws.

Regardless of who he faces, Georges St-Pierre is going to do somewhere in the neighbourhood of 800,000 buys, with the strength of the rest of the card around him responsible for taking this any higher.

Whether it’s Frankie Edgar or Anthony Pettis opposite Benson Henderson for his first lightweight title defence, it’s not going to do some monstrous number. Pettis’ exciting style may move the meter a couple thousand additional buys, but he’s not going to be a 100,000 buy bump.

Pettis is the right choice here, but it’s a perfect storm that has put him in line for a title shot.

If it’s just about entertainment, we may as well just shuffle through the couple of fighters in each division who fans seem to be connected with over and over at the top of each division.

Never mind that he’ll be coming back off a suspension, if Nick Diaz wins his first fight back, let him fight for the title; Jake Ellenberger and his winning streak be damned!

Note: I’m actually fairly certain this is really going to happen, and that makes my heart hurt.

* * * * * * * *

Wins have to be the most important.

Otherwise, we’re trending towards professional wrestling, where you don’t have to win to be on top of the marquee — you just have to be over with the audience.

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As much as Frankie Edgar wants a rematch with Benson Henderson, chances are it isn’t going to happen.

After dropping the lightweight title to the former WEC champ, UFC President Dana White again brought up the idea of Edgar moving down to featherweight to fight champion Jose Aldo. Now that Edgar doesn’t have a championship belt around his waist tying him to the 155-pound ranks, I can’t see him getting his way in this negotiation.

With Edgar out of the mix, Henderson will still end up with a familiar foe standing across from him the first time he puts the UFC lightweight title he won at UFC 144 on the line.

Here’s my picks for the fights to make for last weekend’s winners.

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Benson Henderson
Next Opponent: Anthony Pettis

This isn’t the fight that I would make, but with Edgar likely headed to featherweight, the timing makes sense to put this fight together.

It’s pretty easy to sell this fight: all you have to do is put together a 60-second clip of Henderson’s recent wins, Pettis’ finishes against Danny Castillo and Joe Lauzon, and round it out with “The Showtime Kick,” with the voiceover guy talking about how close the first fight was and that the time is right to do it again.

With Nate Diaz and Jim Miller lined up to face each other in May, and no one else on a long enough winning streak to merit a shot, Pettis vaults to the front of the line on the strength of his headkick knockout victory over Lauzon at UFC 144.

The pairing makes sense because of their history, and you have to just cross your fingers that the second fight plays out similarly to the first, and not like Pettis’ one-sided loss to Clay Guida back in June.

Ryan Bader
Next Opponent: Phil Davis

I don’t think Bader is truly ready to hang with top of the division options like Shogun Rua or Lyoto Machida at this point despite his victory over Quinton “Rampage” Jackson on Saturday night. He got a helping hand on the weekend when Jackson showed up overweight and out of shape, and it would be a waste of that victory to make him a significant underdog next time out.

That’s why I like pairing him with Davis next.

Davis is coming off his loss to Rashad Evans at the end of January, and he too isn’t quite ready for the elite of the light heavyweight ranks. Bader has the better striking of the two, but Davis has an edge on the ground in terms of submissions, and probably his wrestling as well, and that was where Jon Jones was able to expose Bader in their meeting this time last year.

Mark Hunt
Next Opponent: Roy Nelson

Tell me this fight wouldn’t be fun to watch: a brutal knockout artist like Hunt taking on Nelson, a guy who has been very difficult to put away in recent outings. The other ripple to this is that Nelson has very good grappling, and that’s an area where he could expose Hunt if the two were to meet.

While Hunt is coming off a big win over Cheick Kongo and Nelson dropped his UFC 143 meeting with Fabricio Werdum, the truth is that you can’t move Hunt any further up the heavyweight rankings at this point in his career. He’s 37-years-old, and while he’s on a nice three-fight winning streak, you’re not going to risk one of your legitimate contenders against him — just in case — but you can’t drop him too far down the ladder either.

This is the one fight in that 10-15 range in the heavyweight ranks that makes sense to me.

Jake Shields
Next Opponent: Rory MacDonald

If MacDonald (when?) beats Che Mills at UFC 145 in April, I think he’s the right man to match-up with Shields next.

Working off the assumption that MacDonald wins next month, he’d be on a three-fight winning streak and in need of a step up in competition for his next fight, and Shields is the right fit in my opinion. He’s someone that has been a champion in the past, has that big fight experience in the UFC, and is the kind of savvy veteran that a kid like MacDonald would need to beat in order to solidify his place in the pecking order.

The fight makes sense for Shields as well. He’s a few wins away from truly being in contention after losing two fights in 2011, but after getting a good win against Yoshihiro Akiyama over the weekend in Japan, adding a second consecutive victory over an impressive prospect like MacDonald would certainly put him back on track.

Tim Boetsch
Next Opponent: Chris Weidman

Boetsch pulled out an impressive comeback win Saturday night against Yushin Okami, rallying from two rounds down to blast the former title challenger early in the third to claim the victory. It’s a win that vaults him up the rankings, as you’d expect when someone beats a legitimate top 5 contender, and one that should set up another quality fight in the future.

Personally, I like pairing Boetsch with Chris Weidman.

“The All-American” is coming off a victory over Demian Maia on the January FOX card, and stands as the top prospect in the middleweight division. His win over Maia wasn’t exciting, but he’s won four-in-a-row in the UFC now, and continues to show promise. Pairing him with Boetsch works for both guys as Weidman is more high profile than Boestch, but beating Okami gives “The Barbarian” the bigger win between the two.

Boetsch matches up well with Weidman as well. He’s a big, strong collegiate wrestler who has added some judo to his game over the years, and showed the power in his hands Saturday night against Okami. His grappling prowess could offset what has thus far been Weidman’s big advantage over all his opponents, and he has the better hands of the two.

Whoever wins moves into the elite class in the 185-pound ranks, while the loser remains a top 10 guy capable of winning any time they step into the cage.

Hatsu Hioki
Next Opponent: Erik Koch

With Frankie Edgar the leading contender to challenge Jose Aldo for the featherweight title next, Hioki, who earned an impressive win Saturday against Bart Palaszewski, gets bumped back into an ultra-competitive fight in his next outing.

Koch makes the most sense to me. He’s riding a four-fight winning streak, and is a well-rounded talent who will press Hioki, much like Palaszewski did in the second round of their fight Saturday night. For Hioki, you can’t go too far down the rankings to find his next opponent, and while there are a couple guys above Koch (read: Diego Nunes, Chad Mendes), neither is a good fit to fight Hioki at this point.

The interesting thing with Hioki is that it may not be his opponent that’s the biggest challenge for the Japanese star.

Though he looked great in Japan, he looked horrible in Las Vegas against George Roop, and since he’s most likely going to have to fight in North America far more frequently now that he’s in the UFC, Hioki needs to show that he can overcome the travel issues that hindered him in October.

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Dana White wants Frankie Edgar to move to featherweight.

Brett Okamoto of ESPN said yesterday that the man who was the lightweight champion for 22-months and as recently as Saturday evening “needs” to head south ten pounds.

Many people agree with both the UFC President and ESPN’s Okamoto, but Edgar isn’t one of them.

Neither am I.

After losing a close decision to Benson Henderson Saturday night at UFC 144, Edgar made it clear what he’d like next at the post-fight press conference, citing his back-to-back back-to-back fights with BJ Penn and Gray Maynard before asking, “What’s fair?”

Fair would be Edgar getting an immediate rematch, a fight he’s earned through nearly two years at the top of the lightweight division that includes a pair of victories over arguably the best lightweight in the sport’s history (Penn) and a knockout win over the previously undefeated Maynard, avenging the only loss on his record prior to Saturday night.

Unfortunately, what’s fair may not be what happens.

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If I were a betting man, I would lay money on Edgar ending up opposite featherweight champion Jose Aldo sometime later this year. it’s the fight Dana White wants, and strangely, the best option in the 145-pound weight ranks despite the fact that Edgar has never set foot in the division to this point.

Hatsu Hioki looked impressive beating Bart Palaszewski Saturday, but struggled mightily in earning a controversial victory over George Roop back at UFC 137. While he’s the #2-ranked featherweight in the sport, Hioki hasn’t shown enough to prove he has what it takes to hang with Aldo, and he’s as far removed from being a draw as humanly possible.

The winner of the Dustin Poirier-Chan Sung Jung fight could make sense for Aldo, but with that fight scheduled for May 15, waiting for the winner to be ready for Aldo would leave the Brazilian champion on the sidelines for far too long; Aldo last fought in January at UFC 142, stopping previously unbeaten Chad Mendes at the end of the first round.

Should Edgar make the move down in weight, he brings a recognizable name and proven track record of competing at the highest level into a fight with Aldo, a dominant champion who has rolled through everyone that has been put in front of him, but somehow still hasn’t connected fully with the fickle UFC audience.

As a one-off fight at the top end of a pay-per-view, it’s a dream come true title bout in the featherweight ranks; a pairing of two fixtures from the mythical pound-for-pound rankings that can serve as either the main event or co-main event of a quality card in the future, pay-per-view or otherwise.

But what do you do after that one fight?

Let’s run down both potential outcomes — an Aldo win and an Edgar win — and see how they play out long-term for the featherweight ranks.

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Jose Aldo defeats Frankie Edgar

A win over Edgar certainly gives Aldo a new level of recognition and a marquee name on his resume, easily trumping Kenny Florian or Chad Mendes for top spot on his list of conquests.

Fighting Edgar gives the other contenders in the division — Poirier, Jung, Erik Koch, Hioki — a chance to add more experience to their records, and better position themselves for a title shot in the future.

But what happens to Edgar if he loses?

The former lightweight champ ends up sitting on a two-fight losing streak. Unless the loss is a razor-thin decision, Edgar’s not getting an immediate rematch, so he goes back into the pool of contenders in the 145-pound ranks. If he’s not a big enough draw now after a two year run atop the lightweight division, dropping a second straight fight 10-pounds down in weight isn’t going to help him in that department.

Additionally, the consensus seems to be that Aldo will eventually move up to lightweight, but no one knows when that will be; it could be after his next win or two years from now. If he continues to reign over the featherweight ranks, Edgar would need at least two and maybe as many as four good wins to get back into a title fight.

So after getting the one fight that makes the most sense for the division right now, Edgar ends up stuck in “The Rich Franklin Zone” at featherweight, waiting for Aldo to lose the belt, leave the division, or until he strings together enough wins to get another chance.

* * * * * * * *

Frankie Edgar defeats Jose Aldo

Aldo’s been the featherweight champion for 27-months as of now, and dominated five consecutive title challengers. A run like that would earn him an immediate rematch, regardless of how he came to lose the title in the first place.

Having back-to-back bouts between the two would give the rest of the division all kinds of time to beat the hell out of each other and establish a legitimate pecking order, and give the UFC a pair of marquee featherweight match-ups. Those are both big positives that cannot be overlooked or undervalued.

But here’s the thing: if Edgar beats Aldo in two straight, then what?

There may be other challengers who have earned their place in line, but no one sees the current crop of challengers as a threat to Aldo, so what would make them any more of a threat to Edgar should he become the new top dog in the featherweight ranks?

Additionally, Aldo enters “The Rich Franklin Zone” for the remainder of his featherweight stay (however long that may be), and becomes damaged good when/if he moves up to lightweight.

If Edgar wins the first encounter and Aldo wins the rematch, you have to have a third fight, and then we get to a place where the rest of the division is mired in congestion because the championship is being contested between the same two men over and over.

That’s getting too far into the future, but shows the can of worms that easily be opened.

* * * * * * * *

The real issue here isn’t figuring out what to do with Frankie Edgar moving forward, it’s finding a way to spice things up in the featherweight division and get casual fans interested in Jose Aldo.

So far, the UFC hasn’t had any success in building interest in Aldo, the featherweight division, or anyone south of 170-pounds for that matter. After all, it’s not like Edgar is a massive pay-per-view draw at this point in his career, and despite having two epic encounters with Maynard last year, Saturday night’s event probably won’t top 350,000 buys.

Aldo vs. Edgar is the best chance the UFC has to bring attention to the lighter weight class right now, but one fight — or even two fights — between the two isn’t going to suddenly turn the featherweight division into a must-see attraction for fans who haven’t embraced the weight class as of yet.

Beating Edgar doesn’t guarantee Aldo good pay-per-view numbers going forward, not competing against a crop of talented deemed unready, unworthy, and ill-equipped to beat the champion by the majority at this point. Moving Edgar down guarantees the UFC one marketable fight, but one that probably still doesn’t generate more than 400,000 buys, and that’s if I’m being crazy optimistic; 300,000 would probably be a better ceiling.

Whoever loses this hypothetical featherweight encounter takes an unnecessary hit with fans, and the winner doesn’t get a big enough bump to make losing one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport as a top end option worthwhile, at least not in my books.

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Personally, I think the move here is to give Edgar a rematch with Henderson, while giving Anthony Pettis a bout with the winner of the Nate Diaz-Jim Miller fight to determine a true #1 contender in the lightweight division. No disrespect to Pettis, but wins over Jeremy Stephens and Joe Lauzon don’t exactly scream #1 contender, especially not only eight months after he was handily beaten by Clay Guida.

Meanwhile, pair Aldo with Hatsu Hioki — the best available option for him right now in the 145-pound ranks — and then wait and see what happens with Edgar.

If loses to Henderson a second time, maybe he’s more inclined to move down to featherweight, where a fight with Aldo still awaits. It’s not as shiny as it would be right now, but you can’t win ‘em all, no matter how hard you try.

If he beats Henderson, he’s proven he belongs at lightweight — even though he proven that already — and the UFC has to actually deal with their tough task of marketing and promoting the featherweight division.

Right now, they just want to put together the quick fix Aldo vs. Edgar fight.

Pushing the featherweight ranks is still going to be a problem in the future, whether it includes Frankie Edgar or not.

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